Friday, 27 May 2011

Behavioural Economics

"The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters.”

At times it seems like economics justly deserves its epithet of the "dismal science".  As an undergraduate student,  certain fundamental assumptions are expounded to students, often called the "neoclassical" assumptions of economics (of course these assumptions are summarily dismantled as one advances in the field).  There are two relevant ones here.  First, humans have rational preferences - i.e. we are able to attach values to outcomes and choose between them.  Second, humans are utility maximisers (for the purpose of this discussion we can just consider utility to be happiness).  In short, I can be aware that I prefer chocolate to avocados and when given a choice between the two, will pick chocolate (problems of diminishing marginal utility aside).  

So how does this tie in to behavioural economics?  Well, when people behave according to these assumptions, a number of seemingly intractable problems appear.  Perhaps the most famous is the prisoner's dilemma: 


Two criminals have been arrested for a crime, are approached separately by a prosecutor and are told they can either confess or keep quiet, with the respective outcomes indicates above.  As it turns out, no matter what Prisoner B does, it is always in Prisoner A's best interest to confess, as his jail time will lower, and vice versa.  This results in a somewhat bizarre outcome where both prisoners confess and end up in jail for 5 years, whereas if they had both kept quiet they would have been out in a year (in game theoretic terms, we have a Nash equilibrium without Pareto optimisation).  To give a real life example - we would all benefit if every country in the world reduced carbon emissions, however for any single country the economic costs often outweigh the benefits, and as a result most countries are relatively hesitant to cut emissions, and certainly don't want to be the first.  

The overarching point here is that it is often difficult to get people to cooperate in real life, because what is optimal for an individual is not necessarily optimal for a group.

Behavioural economists have tackled this problem by devising a number of ingenious games.  One such game is called the public goods game, where everyone is given a certain amount of "money" which they can then choose to keep to themselves, or to contribute to a public pot.  The contributed money is then multiplied by some amount and distributed equally to all the participants.  The Pareto optimal outcome here (i.e. where everyone is "best off") is if everyone contributes everything to the pot.  But as an individual I am obviously inclined to shirk so that I can get the benefit of the public good without having to contribute.  In typical iterations of this game, people contribute a fairly large sum to start off with, and then contribute less and less as they notice that others aren't holding their weight, and eventually contributions dwindle.

To cut to the chase, using questionnaires and alterations to the mechanics of the game, the economists discovered that most people are "conditional cooperators".  In other words, I will contribute to the neighbourhood watch as long as everyone else does.  However, a small number of "free-riders" cause the conditional cooperators to revise their optimistic opinion of others downward and cooperation peters out.  So how can this be dealt with? Punishment, or a credible threat of punishment (as no doubt many law enforcement agencies would be unsurprised to hear) is effective, and was frequently used in the game - even when costly to the punisher.  Interestingly, punishment is sufficient but not necessary to ensuring cooperation.  Allowing participants to communicate turned out to be nearly as effective.  

This is particularly interesting because of the implications it has for real life problems.  In contrast to the sterile, often heterogeneous environment of the game, the kind of groups people form in real life are often more conducive for this sort of communication/punishment/social disdain.  This suggests that collective action problems aren't as intractable as many governments think, and that there is greater scope for social co-operation in the provision of public goods (things like the local neighbourhood watch, or litter reduction campaigns).

It leads to the comforting conclusion that (most) people really aren't as self-interested as economics might suggest.  The majority of people will cooperate as long as they are aware that most others are just like them.  This generates the kind of optimism that is critical to sustained social interaction.   

I would strongly recommend reading Experiments in Economics by Ananish Chaudhuri if you find this topic somewhat interesting.  It's a great introduction to the field, and perfectly accessible, even to those who think Adam Smith is a football player.



Thursday, 19 May 2011

Starting a Blog

Starting a blog is a lot more difficult than it seems.  A quick Google search identifies hundreds of blogs with the sole purpose of informing one how to write a blog.  The first decision one faces of course (after having succeeded the arduous indecision one faces before even touching a keyboard), is which website to use to host one's blog.  For a novice blogger (like me), the two most popular blogging platforms, namely Blogger and Wordpress, are a good place to start.  Anecdotal evidence suggests Blogger is easier to use, and combined with my attachment to integration with my Google account, as well as the somewhat vain hope that one day this might generate supplementary income via AdSense, I've chosen to use Blogger.

First hurdle hurdled.

Next, and this one took a while, one has to name one's blog.  The problem here is that the name needs to be suitably witty to keep readers engaged, but not so esoteric that they struggle to remember it when (re)tweeting/posting/talking about it to others.  Precision presumably helps for SEO and AdSense, but feels rather limiting and discourages rambling (a positive in my mind).  I'm sure a few of you familiar with my taste in literature can guess where I snatched my name from eventually, can't you?  Unfortunately, I have already had to encounter the frustration of domain squatting, hence the hyphen in my domain name.  There should really be a system where unused blogs have their domain names freed for public use after a certain period of time.

With the name decided, the rest is really rather straightforward. One picks a template, customises it to taste, and begins to write.

So far I've avoided, with sesquipedalian loquaciousness (I'll be proud if you get that reference), mentioning why I'm writing this blog or what it will be about, so here it is:

Firstly, having graduated from university last year, I've had little (read no) opportunity to write.  Secondly, I like to think that I have quite a broad spectrum of interests, ranging from the conventional (travel, music, television), to the probably more uncommon (Japanese, gender roles, "meta" analysis, post-scarcity economics).  Writing about these interests gives me an opportunity to formulate how I think about these concepts as well as an excuse for some extra research, and will hopefully be of passing interest to anyone who has the time to read this blog.  Thirdly, I am moving to Japan for at least a year to teach English via the JET Programme, and this will be another addition to the plethora of blogs chronicling the journeys of hapless westerners in Japan (but these will be MY journeys).

So how was that for a beginning?